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Market insights
Associate Director
This video recap offers our thoughts of the 2026 Autumn Budget, due on 28th October, and what it could mean for business owners and private Clients. We look at the fiscal backdrop shaping the Chancellor’s choices, what is already locked in regardless of Budget day, and the areas that could still be targeted.
Our speakers
James Bacon, Associate Director and Chartered Financial Planner, sets the scene, covering the fiscal challenge facing the Chancellor, the global picture, interest rates and government debt, spending pressures, the role of AI and productivity in UK growth, and the UK tax burden.
Radostina Dencheva,Associate Director, Chartered FCSI and Chartered Wealth Manager, covers the tax changes already confirmed, pensions and inheritance tax, what could still be on the table, and what it all means for business owners and private Clients.
The webinar is introduced by Angela Brett, Associate Director – Marketing.
Key themes covered
00:00 – Angela Brett – Introduction Welcome to the webinar, an introduction to Chadwicks and our speakers James Bacon and Radostina Dencheva.
01:46 – Angela Brett – Agenda An overview of what will be covered, from the economic backdrop and government finances through to confirmed and potential tax changes.
02:15 – James Bacon – The Budget Challenge Why the Chancellor has limited room for manoeuvre, with restricted fiscal headroom, spending commitments and major taxes already largely ruled out for further increases.
04:12 – James Bacon – The Global Picture UK growth in the context of the US, Europe, China and Japan, alongside the impact of geopolitical events, energy prices and inflation on the global economy.
05:55 – James Bacon – UK Interest Rates & Government Debt Why the outlook has shifted towards interest rates remaining higher for longer, and how gilt yields, inflation-linked debt and refinancing costs affect the Government’s fiscal headroom.
10:24 – James Bacon – Government Spending Pressures Where government spending goes, the growing cost of servicing debt and the longer-term pressure created by healthcare, pensions, welfare and an ageing population.
13:36 – James Bacon – AI & UK Growth Why stronger productivity growth could materially improve the UK’s public finances, and the potential role of AI in improving productivity and reducing future borrowing requirements.
17:13 – James Bacon – UK Tax Burden & Fiscal Drag How frozen tax thresholds are pulling more people into higher rates of tax, why the overall UK tax burden has risen and the effect recent tax increases may be having on employment and economic growth.
24:22 – Radostina Dencheva – Tax Changes Confirmed A recap of measures already announced, including Business Asset Disposal Relief, agricultural and business relief, Employee Ownership Trusts, employer National Insurance, dividend tax and changes to the Cash ISA allowance.
28:53 – Radostina Dencheva – Pensions, IHT & Future Tax Changes The forthcoming inclusion of pensions within estates for inheritance tax, frozen tax thresholds, proposed property taxation and future limits on the National Insurance benefits of salary sacrifice.
32:11 – Radostina Dencheva – What’s Still on the Table A look at the areas the Chancellor could still target, including Capital Gains Tax and possible changes to the treatment of assets on death, alongside the limitations of using narrower taxes to raise significant revenue.
44:17 – Radostina Dencheva – If You Own a Business What the changing tax environment and potential Budget measures could mean specifically for business owners and those considering succession or a future business exit.
47:34 – Radostina Dencheva – Ramifications for Clients The practical implications for private clients and the importance of considering tax changes as part of wider, long-term financial planning.
This session was recorded on Monday 5th October 2026.
This video is intended for information only and does not represent personal financial advice. But if you would like to speak to one of our Chartered Financial Advisers, please get in touch. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed – you may get back less than you paid in.